September 27, 2010

Fall at Last, But When Will We Have Some Rain?

Filed under: Drought,Forecasting,Tropical — Erin @ 10:41 pm

Over the weekend, an extremely welcome cold front passed through the Southeast, finally giving the record high temperatures and the persistent high pressure system that generated them a kick out the door. No 90s in the foreseeable future. According to Jackson NWS, this should finally begin a fall pattern in which troughs periodically pay the Southeast a visit. The front didn’t make a dent in the drought conditions that have developed over the area in the past month, however. It brought cool temperatures and rainfall to select areas, but most places just didn’t get much. Columbus AFB recorded less than a tenth of an inch for the entire frontal passage. With the ground as parched as it is, this meager water was soaked up immediately. It looks like we’ll have to wait a bit for a significant rain event.

That rain event unfortunately probably will not come from the tropics, though this would be a very fruitful source if it did happen. The Hurricane Center is giving a 40% chance of development to an area of low pressure in the west Caribbean, designated 96L, which is forecast to move into the Gulf.

However, models are all taking this disturbance into South Florida.

Things can change, of course, but it’s uncommon to have this much agreement that close to a landfall and to have a shift of that magnitude.

The next frontal passage will be this weekend, but this front is expected to be dry. It’s soon going to be tempting to have fall bonfires, but I don’t think it’s quite safe to do that just yet!

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