There isn’t much to say about the weather in the Deep South, unfortunately. A cold front is set to move through the region this weekend, dropping temperatures down about 10 degrees again and making the air outside seem truly fall-like. However, it is going to be a dry cold front. Nothing has changed as far as rain is concerned; there is none predicted as far as the forecasts are made. The Weather Service in Jackson has begun issuing fire weather products for the state, and the office out of Birmingham has issued red flag warnings. Burn bans are also in effect for large areas, though it’s highly inadvisable to burn even if you aren’t officially under a ban. It’s hard to believe that within a half a day’s drive, the Carolinas are getting drenched with the rainfall of a trough and the remains of Tropical Storm Nicole entrained into the cyclone, while we in the Deep South are now officially under drought conditions.
With the state as parched as this, it’s reaching a point where we will look anywhere for something that might send us some moisture—or at least, that has not yet been eliminated as a contender for doing that. Out in the tropics, there is a new system in the Central Atlantic, 97L, probably one of the last to develop in places like that this year. However, while the track and development of this system are still very much up in the air, the 12Z GFS doesn’t seem particularly interested in the disturbance. It does, in the two-week range, show a big, wet cold-core cyclone coming through the Southeast and finally ending the drought. I am going to keep an eye on this model and see if it retains this feature; the models are beginning to show some skill in long-range forecasts. And besides, hope springs eternal.