Against all predictions, Hurricane Flossie in the Central Pacific exploded to a Category 4 and is posing a threat to Hawai’i, although it is expected to weaken and avoid a direct hit on the islands. It seems to the casual observer that the EPac has had all the activity this year. It might prompt the question, does the advent of Flossie signal a change in the ENSO pattern?

NO!

While it is true that, usually, the most intense hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific basin occur during El Ni

As expected, former invest.90L strengthened in to Tropical Depression 4 this morning. The system is currently embedded in moderate shear. This has caused the depression to be elongated, as the satellite images show. It will keep it from becoming very strong for now. At a brisk pace of 20 mph, it should move out of this shear in a day or two, and we can then expect explosive intensification. I expect this system to become a hurricane by Thursday night. As for where it will go from there — I don’t know, neither do you, and neither do the computers!

A system in the north Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico is intensifying its convection. Shear is low in the area. It’s possible this may form into something, but I’m not expecting it.

Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific is starting to appear a little more ragged in its satellite, hopefully signaling the long-expected weakening. However, because it was a Category Four for so long, it has built up a large surge, which will threaten Hawaii in the form of waves as the hurricane approaches the islands.