November 20, 2006

2008 Shaping Up to Be a Rout or a Three-way Race

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 12:52 pm

First, the pundits are kidding themselves if they honestly think that the 2008 presidential election will be a two-way race between Hillary Clinton and John McCain. That matchup is nothing but idle chatter. That said, I think McCain has a far better shot of getting the GOP nomination than Hillary does of getting the Democratic nomination. Hillary has some very serious negatives that will stymie her, including the fact that she cannot give an explanation of her presidential aspirations that will sound acceptable to Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada voters.

Since at least 2000, probably earlier, it’s been known that she harbors the ambition. Running for an open seat in a blue state was merely a platform from which she would explore her options. Ambition is a good thing, certainly not anything shameful. But for a solid six years, her ambitions have been obvious, overt, and highly calculated — and the source of the ambition is absolutely nothing but her own desire. I don’t question her patriotism, but she isn’t considering a presidential run because of it. She’s considering a run purely because of her own ego, and it’s been evident for over half a decade. I don’t think she’ll ever shake that.

McCain, however, is a more likely prospect. Let’s examine the ramifications of that.
The Republican Party has been in a civil war since the election. The “moderate” wing is basically nonexistent now, and the conservatives are at each other’s throats. The PNAC set, led by Cheney, Rumsfeld, & Co., appears to have been sidelined in favor of the Reagan/Bush1 Iran-Contra characters, symbolized by Robert Gates. The grassroots have been drawing blood wherever they go, with the anti-immigration conservatives, the fundamentalists, and the diehard neoconservative supporters taking breaks from the bloodbath only to fire volleys indiscriminately at George Bush.

The charge they typically level is that the administration and the outgoing Congress have sold out true conservatism, and that they must retake their party. Yes, that’s right — Americans threw the bums out because they were too liberal, at least according to the deranged and delusional right-wing blogosphere.

They’re angry.

They’re feeling betrayed.

And they are the Republican base.

John McCain is a conservative. Unabashedly. He has some persistent but dwindling crossover appeal because of his campaign finance reform bill (which, in one of life’s wonderful ironies, he himself later violated) and his carefully constructed media image as a maverick. The man is nothing of the sort, but it would seem that the Republican base doesn’t necessarily get that.

No, they HATE him with a burning passion. He is definitely too liberal for them. In fact, almost all of the prospective Republicans are too liberal for the base, or have some other problem with their base.

McCain and Giuliani are perceived as liberal. The only one who could arguably claim to be a social moderate is Giuliani, but they both have that perception.

Outgoing Governor Mitt Romney (R-MA) is a Mormon and also has a record of some social liberalism. More than that, though, he’s an abject failure that the state is glad to be rid of.

Condoleezza Rice is closely associated with the Bush administration and is therefore DOA. She is also a black woman, and there’s no way that all of the factions of right-wingers can coalesce around her.

I used to give Bill Frist a lot more credibility as a candidate. However, since then, he has been shown to be incompetent, quite frankly. And by retiring, forced the GOP to pour money to defend that seat instead of sending it north to Virginia. He’s also in favor of stem cell research, an unforgivable sin among the fundamentalist set.

Speaking of Virginia, George Allen, formerly a star, has fallen from grace with his Senate loss. (More on soon-to-be Ex-Senator Macaca in a bit.)

Newt Gingrich is on his third marriage and resigned from his position in disgrace. He was exposed as a hypocrite in the 1990s for attacking Bill Clinton for the same behavior that he himself committed, and worst of all, he served his first wife the divorce papers while she was on a hospital bed after receiving cancer treatments.

That leaves the two dark horse candidates, Senator Sam Brownback (KS) and Governor Mike Huckabee (AR). Both are conservative enough for the base, but they are virtual unknowns. I suspect this will change and one of them will break out as the conservative of choice for the disgruntled right-wingers.

However, McCain could still win the nomination. I predict it will be a nasty, brutal contest between him and one of the right-wing dark horses.

If Brownback or Huckabee gets it, it opens up the possibility of an absolute landslide for the Democrat. I’m talking 300+ electoral votes. Look for Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and possibly Missouri and Virginia to flip from their 2004 recorded results. Why Virginia? Well, it has elected two Democratic governors in a row, and now a U.S. Senator. The trend is undeniable. And there’s chatter that popular Republican incumbent John Warner will retire in 2008 and Macaca Man will attempt to weasel his way back into the Senate by running for this seat… against even more popular former governor Mark Warner. With a highly regarded former governor possibly on the ballot, and a star-powered freshman Senator (Webb) making the rounds, Virginia is ripe to turn blue.

IF the Democratic Party nominates someone who can take advantage of the situation, that is.

If McCain gets it, look for the disaffected right-wing base to go third party. Yes, you heard that right. I think they are in deadly earnest. The rage I have seen on right-wing blogs and forums is unbelievable, and it’s not just blogs. George Bush has abysmal approval ratings around the country, including parts of the conservative South, but in such conservative strongholds, the disapproval is from conservatives who feel that Bush has been a bad conservative. They haven’t repudiated their ideology, just this worthless excuse for a president, and they’d be receptive to a “new” conservative. Any third-party candidate that seized upon this would do well. With a right-wing third party siphoning off perhaps 20% of the vote, I must concede that McCain would be more likely to pick up independent voters. They would see him as the “middle” in such a race, although there wouldn’t be much practical difference between him and the challenger from the Right.

2008 is shaping up to be an exciting race. This kind of thing doesn’t happen that often, and when it does, it’s worth an extra bag of popcorn.

If you’re a casual observer, that is, with no stake in it. Which I am highly unlikely to be. So if my prediction turns out right, you can have my popcorn. Do enjoy it.

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November 16, 2006

Standing with Dean

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 1:58 pm

Old Clinton strategist James Carville seems to have it out for DNC Chairman Howard Dean.

First it was this:

Some big name Democrats want to oust DNC Chairman Howard Dean, arguing that his stubborn commitment to the 50-state strategy and his stinginess with funds for House races cost the Democrats several pickup opportunities.

The candidate being floated to replace Dean? Harold Ford.

Says James Carville, one of the anti-Deaniacs, “Suppose Harold Ford became chairman of the DNC? How much more money do you think we could raise? Just think of the difference it could make in one day. Now probably Harold Ford wants to stay in Tennessee. I just appointed myself his campaign manager.”

Now this:

Asked by a reporter whether Dean should be dumped, Carville replied, “In a word, do I think? Yes.”

He added, “I think he should be held accountable.” He added, “I would describe his leadership as Rumsfeldian in its competence.”

Rumsfeldian?

Since, after all, the party won the House (expected) and the Senate (unexpected). I mean, when I hear about the 2006 election results, I certainly compare it to the disaster in Iraq.

As far as I can tell, the only thing the results have in common with Iraq (at least if you’re a Democrat) is that both now have a civil war involved. However, the intra-party civil war was sparked by Carville. Perhaps he should compare himself to Rumsfeld rather than Dean.

Harold Ford, who lost his bid for Bill Frist’s Senate seat to Bob Corker, said he didn’t want the position anyway. This gives credence to the idea that Carville was involving someone else in his ugly little dispute without that person’s knowledge or permission. This has nothing to do with Ford.

It has little to do with Mary Matalin, Republican strategist and Carville’s wife, despite that Carville called her on election night of 2004 to inform her that Kerry and Edwards were planning to contest the Ohio election and that he disagreed with that decision. Being a loyal Republican, she immediately told the Bush campaign about it, and they got in touch with Ken Blackwell, corrupt Secretary of State of Ohio. The rest is history. No, Carville may have sabotaged the 2004 election, but that doesn’t necessarily make him a Republican mole. There are other possible motivations for sabotaging the election challenge. This has little to do with Matalin.

It has EVERYTHING to do with Hillary Clinton. (Read more…)

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November 13, 2006

No Love Lost Between Webb and Gates

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 3:04 pm

Apparently the Bush Administration wants Secretary of Defense nominee Robert Gates to be confirmed before the 110th Congress is sworn in. Why?

Well, because old Reagan Administration cohort, and current Senator-elect Jim Webb (D-VA), doesn’t have the best opinion of Gates. And presumably Webb will be on the Armed Forces Committee, considering his background as a former Secretary of the Navy. In a Senate controlled by Democrats, anything Webb said against Gates would be taken into deep consideration.

According to Robert Novak of Plame fame,

During President Ronald Reagan’s second term, Gates and Webb clashed as colleagues. Webb as secretary of the Navy objected to plans by Gates, then deputy national security adviser, for U.S. warships to protect oil platforms in the Persian Gulf. The hot-tempered Webb made clear his irritation with the soft-spoken Gates.

(Nice spin painting this old Iran-Contra creep as a nice guy and squeaky-clean Webb as a bully.)

This could get very interesting if Sen. John Kerry, who has a long history with the Iran-Contra gang, and whose endorsement and $400,000 probably helped secure Webb’s election, gets involved. Kerry has an unpleasant history with Gates as well.

No wonder the Bushies want to force him through in the lame-duck Congress.

Is it asking too much of them to nominate someone reasonable and not corrupt?

Oh, never mind.

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November 10, 2006

Fallout

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 3:57 pm

Tuesday was a mandate for change, clean government, and idea-based politics.

It was a mandate for a check on the out-of-control Bush administration.

It was a mandate for moderation and reform.

It was NOT a mandate for conservatism.

These newly elected Democrats are socially libertarian, for the most part, and economically populist. They are not right-wing conservatives, and you’ll see that difference when they assume office next year.

There’s not too much for me to say. My birthday is tomorrow, and this was a beautiful present.

Thank you, America — with special thanks to 9,000 voters in Virginia (a fraction of 1% of the population) who decided to get out and vote.

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November 2, 2006

The John Kerry I Know

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 1:27 pm

Late in 2005, I was invited as a guest to John Kerry’s birthday gala in Boston. At the party, I had the honor of speaking with Kerry himself as well as his lovely and sweet wife. It was a great experience. But, like many such events, it had several hundred people present, and no one person got much “face time.” That was fine. It was no one’s fault, and what’s more, was a good thing that he drew that kind of support.

After the party, I went to the hotel restaurant with several staffers and other supporters. We all sat down and ordered some late-night food and drinks. We chattered, growing increasingly louder, over one topic after another. The war. Hurricane Katrina. The fact that Kerry’s office had sent an aid plane to the Gulf Coast but had not wanted a media spectacle made of it. The party. Local politics. One of the staffers got a call from the Senator on his cell phone and held it out to the rest of the table for us to send a message. We screamed into the phone.

Ten minutes later, the Senator himself walked in the door, dressed in jeans and casual clothes.He sat down and announced that the bill was on him. Then he entered the conversation as though he’d been there all along.

I am a native of the South and lived within a couple of hours’ driving distance of the areas that were devastated by Hurricane Katrina. The Gulf Coast is still being neglected, with local businesses and homeowners being disregarded in favor of huge industries. All the missing still have not been located. The issue of disaster relief is dear to my heart, to put it mildly. I mentioned this to the Senator, and thanked him for sending his relief plane.

Well, it turned out that he had sent three. With NO mention in the media. He didn’t want it. It wasn’t supposed to be about making a political statement for him, but about helping those who needed it. This was, of course, an amazing distinction from the sideshow that George W. Bush and assorted Republicans put on to attempt to save face after the storm.

I have to say, I was moved to tears. And I am not the sort of person to cry in public, much less before a famous person. I would have considered it humiliating, but not this time. Kerry portrayed the aura of ease, of sympathy, and of understanding. He wouldn’t think less of me for being emotional about something that was so important to me. How often do you find that, a public official whom you can cry in front of — cry in sadness and gratitude, not excitement — without embarrassment?

For many in that restaurant, this night was the first time they had met the Senator in person. He was perfectly fine with that, perfectly at ease with everyone. He trusted us and was completely genuine, authentic, and honest with us. It was obvious from the way he spoke to us. He spoke like a regular person, not a politician. There was no simpering, sucking up, or pontificating, as jaded people might expect from a meeting with a political figure. It was all real. He talked to us about what we could all do to support Democrats in 2006, and how important it was. He talked about being a fighter and learning from the 2004 campaign.

He talked about his gratitude for our support of him, and how honored he was. This is a pattern I’ve observed from reading about other meetings between him and his supporters. He is always modest and seems surprised and honored that people truly believe in him. How rare is that for an elected official to be honored and modestly surprised that his supporters don’t just support him, but believe in him? I don’t know why he would be surprised; it only makes sense that someone who holds such strong and patriotic beliefs himself would attract supporters with equally strong ideals and equally deep support. However, I recognize that I am far less modest than Kerry, so that is the difference. It wouldn’t naturally occur to him that throngs of people would believe in him, with their minds and hearts. Unlike many political figures, he’s not so full of himself as to assume something like that.

He concluded the evening with bear hugs for everyone. The sort of hug that envelops you, and you just know that if you were to break free of it, the person hugging you would be smiling kindly at you. I know what a “political hug” is. I’ve been the recipient, or victim if you prefer, of one, more than once. This was not a political hug.

I didn’t chat with a politician that night. I made a friend.

The John Kerry I met was, and is, a human being with a heart. He is a public servant in the truest sense of the phrase. In recent days, it’s been said that he’s a “bad politician.” If, by that, people mean that he is bad at dishonesty, fakery, game-playing, and shameless self-promotion, then they’re right. He is a bad “politician.” But you know, we’ve had at least six years of rule by “politicians,” people who do everything with their top priority as their own political fortunes rather than the benefit of the country. America is not better for it.

I don’t know what Kerry’s plans are for the future. No one really and truly knows that except for him, because it will always be his decision. He will not be bullied or pressured into any decision by outside influences, because for him, his career has not been about self-aggrandizement. It has been about serving America. Should he choose to make another run for the highest office in the land, I will be one of the first to get behind him.

Why? Because he is not a “politician.” He’s a regular person. He’s a public servant. He is a patriot.

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