Against all predictions, Hurricane Flossie in the Central Pacific exploded to a Category 4 and is posing a threat to Hawai’i, although it is expected to weaken and avoid a direct hit on the islands. It seems to the casual observer that the EPac has had all the activity this year. It might prompt the question, does the advent of Flossie signal a change in the ENSO pattern?
NO!
While it is true that, usually, the most intense hurricanes and typhoons in the Pacific basin occur during El Ni
As expected, former invest.90L strengthened in to Tropical Depression 4 this morning. The system is currently embedded in moderate shear. This has caused the depression to be elongated, as the satellite images show. It will keep it from becoming very strong for now. At a brisk pace of 20 mph, it should move out of this shear in a day or two, and we can then expect explosive intensification. I expect this system to become a hurricane by Thursday night. As for where it will go from there — I don’t know, neither do you, and neither do the computers!
A system in the north Caribbean/southern Gulf of Mexico is intensifying its convection. Shear is low in the area. It’s possible this may form into something, but I’m not expecting it.
Hurricane Flossie in the Pacific is starting to appear a little more ragged in its satellite, hopefully signaling the long-expected weakening. However, because it was a Category Four for so long, it has built up a large surge, which will threaten Hawaii in the form of waves as the hurricane approaches the islands.
Well, the month of July didn’t pass without a tropical cyclone forming! Former invest 98L was declared Tropical Depression 3 tonight by the NHC. I think they may have missed the boat on this and in reanalysis, the storm could well be analyzed as having formed earlier (as a subtropical depression that transitioned into a full TD today). It may well get the name Chantal before the Central Atlantic disturbance 99L, but if so, it won’t last long as a tropical system. The system is also not forecast to be strong at sea. The only threat is to Europe as an extratropical cyclone.
Closer to home, invest 99L has formed from a central Atlantic tropical wave, and is heading WNW into the Caribbean. It is fairly strong for a tropical wave, and is developing outflow, as one can see from the satellite picture — especially to the north. After having much of its convection sheared off today, it is rebuilding itself. More importantly, the new convection is forming directly over the surface low, as opposed to the earlier convection, which was lopsided and was hindering further organization. This is a MAJOR leg up for 99L. If this continues, I suspect it will be named TD Four by tomorrow afternoon, perhaps even late morning. The real question is whether this system or TD 3 will get the C name.
The DSHIPS intensity model forecasts it to become a hurricane within 3-4 days.
As some may know, I don’t treat any computer model as a deity, because I think that they all miss things. And so it is with this model for this storm. I don’t quite buy this forecast of intensity. I do think the storm will develop, and will probably eventually become our first hurricane of the season, and will unfortunately threaten the Gulf and Caribbean, but not that soon. There is a fair amount of dry air in its path, and shear, while favorable, isn’t ideal — 10-15 knots in some spots.
Anyway, this is definitely a system to keep an eye on if you live anywhere from Central America to Florida. (Wide range, I know, but it’s pretty far out!) Like clockwork, we move from July into August, and it looks like the Atlantic is transitioning as well.
2006 has had a surprisingly slow hurricane season considering that it’s part of the active phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Tropical Storm Florence is currently spinning in the Atlantic, flirting with the East Coast (but probably won’t make the commitment). Compare this with last year, when we were past the now infamous “K” name, and with 2004, which had already had two Category Four storms and a Category Five (Ivan) brewing.
Every single storm this year has struggled, from the smallest disturbance to the (so far) most powerful system of the year, Category One Hurricane Ernesto. They all experienced dry air and strong shear, which hindered development despite the overall warm sea surface temperatures that I have been documenting since May. Meanwhile, activity in the Pacific Basin has flourished; the eastern part of it is on the “K” name (Kristy). What’s causing this?
Well, the answer appears to be that meteorological boogeyman associated in the public mind with weird weather and general weather-related misfortune: El Niño. Meteorologists are starting to come to agreement that we are entering an El Niño and that it will impact the winter weather this year, as well as the remainder of the hurricane season. What doesn’t it impact?
Hmm…
Well, the weird thing is that Atlantic sea temperatures remain very warm. The Gulf of Mexico is warm enough to support a storm like Hurricane Camille (which had 200 mph winds), and much of the Atlantic can support a major hurricane. Ordinarily, El Niño is accompanied by cooler-than-normal Atlantic temperatures as well as unusual prevailing wind patterns that destroy tropical systems. The winds are there, but not the water temperatures. I wonder if global warming has caused our oceans to remain warmer than normal (whether for El Niño, La Niña, or neutral) for longer than normal. Thus far, this active hurricane cycle, which began in 1995, has had two strong El Niño years: 1997 and 2002. 2004’s hurricane season was cut short by a weak El Niño that developed late in that year, but only 1997 and 2002 experienced a powerful event. In both years, sea temperatures dropped with the onset of the El Niño conditions.
It’s something to think about.
Hurricane Bud, currently in very rapid intensification. (Who picks these names anyway? That is such a non-threatening name.)
This one’s fun to watch because it’s harmless. East Pacific storms, unless they develop very near the coast, usually are; they head west into open sea. So there’re no feelings of guilt associated with the thrill of watching a storm explode.