February 15, 2010

The Tea Party and the Conspiracist Mind

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 11:34 pm

I’ve observed the Tea Party with a surprisingly high amount of apolitical fascination, considering my political past on the other side of the spectrum. There is something about the movement—at least, its libertarian-oriented 2009 incarnation—that kind of appealed even to me, and I had an idea that it might be possible to join with them in a bipartisan populist groundswell against the forces of Big Corrupt Business and Big Corrupt Government. However, the movement has subtly changed since its inception, and I don’t think this is possible any longer. The change has to do with the general perception of reality within the Tea Party ranks. The Tea Party movement is actively encouraging the mindset of a conspiracy theorist.

It comes as no real surprise to me that existing conspiracy theories such as birtherism and trutherism are commonly held by Tea Partiers. Clearly, birtherism—the idea that President Obama was born a citizen of the British Empire—is more common in a right-wing movement than trutherism, but both make plenty of appearances. Trutherism, I should note, is the idea that the attacks of 9/11/2001 were a controlled demolition or were perpetrated by some entity other than Al-Qaeda. (This is not the same thing as questioning whether the United States government did everything it could legally do to prevent the attacks from occurring.) Some flavors of trutherism are extremely anti-Semitic and invoke the New World Order conspiracy theory. However, when I speak of a “conspiracist mindset” within the Tea Party, I do not merely mean an unofficial embrace of pre-existing conspiracy theories. I mean that the movement itself is increasingly losing any semblance of what one could call a political ideology, and instead focusing on a version of reality that can only be called a conspiracy theory.

One of the hallmarks of a conspiracy theory is the idea that all sources of information except a select few are part of the conspiracy. Now, I have some experience with the media. Even for some completely innocuous feel-good stories about the local “whiz kid” in the National Spelling Bee, the media managed to grossly misquote me more than once. For one front-page article, they misspelled my name, ironically enough. If the media can mess up harmless, inoffensive stories like that, then of course anything they say should be viewed with a certain amount of suspicion as to detail. However, this is not the way the Tea Party sees it. It is not about incompetence or laziness to them. The media, to them, are not just avoiding the conspiracy point of view because they cannot substantiate it, nor are they doing it for a mercenary reason; they are actively involved in furthering the conspiracy because they support it. The Tea Party movement has adopted this notion, and among most of the Tea Partiers, there exist only a few “trustworthy” sources of information: Fox News, Rush Limbaugh’s radio show, certain right-wing blogs and websites, Sarah Palin’s palm… but I digress. The point is that any source of information other than the accepted ones is automatically suspect to the Tea Party.

Needless to say, this is deeply ironic for a movement that got started because of a staged on-screen rant made by a CNBC reporter. However, there actually is a method to the madness. The Tea Party accepts this view of the media because it purports to be a dissident revolutionary movement within an authoritarian country. They differ as to whether it is a fascist or communist dictatorship (or perhaps they don’t know the difference), but they are united in the view that we are under some form of authoritarianism. In dictatorships, “official” sources really can’t be trusted to report the truth, and real information has to come from the underground or outside the country. I am unsure how many Tea Partiers know that Rupert Murdoch is Australian, but even if a majority do, this probably does not bother them. In the 1990s, conservatives called Fox News “Radio Free America,” an homage to Radio Free Europe, which was funded by the American government and countered the Communist Party line in the days of the Soviet bloc. For those Tea Partiers who know that the owner of their favorite TV station is not American, they probably see it as a plus because it fits with their worldview in which American media are controlled by the government as part of the conspiracy. Presumably, the fact that Australia has a government censor on Internet Service Providers located there escapes them entirely.

But it’s not just a distrust of the media that powers the Tea Party conspiracy theory. One must keep in mind that, in their view, America has become a dictatorship. Once you understand that this view underlies everything they believe about the country we live in, it makes perfect sense within that framework.

Dictatorships always have players officially outside the government to keep order. To the Tea Party, a key player is ACORN, an organization that I had never even heard of until 2008. Many of the Tea Party adherents believe, or at least entertain the idea, that this nonprofit group “stole the election” for Barack Obama. They compare it to the idea that many on the left side of the spectrum had that voter suppression, ballot-box stuffing, and possible electronic machine fraud flipped the state of Ohio to George W. Bush in 2004. This ignores several pertinent facts about the 2004 election. This is a diversion, I’ll admit, but since I’ve seen this “defense” made by a lot of people, I’m going to head it off at the pass:

  1. In 2004, a credible means was proposed for the alleged fraud, as well as a credible scale on which it could possibly have taken place. Voter suppression has a long and sordid history in the U.S. and every election has it reported. Additionally, as a software engineer, I can assert that election security has been a professional concern for this community, not just a political one. The machines in question were deemed insecure and shockingly easy to tamper with, so much in fact that many states (including Florida of electoral infamy) ditched theirs after only a few elections.
  2. In 2004, eyewitness reports of young and minority voters being illegally turned away from the polls surfaced. In addition, the Secretary of State was known to have ordered thousands of new voter registrations to be rejected because the wrong weight of card stock was used for the registration forms.
  3. In 2004, a populous county in Ohio closed its doors to all observers when it counted its votes, citing a terrorist threat to the area. When the FBI was later questioned about it, agents said that there was no such threat issued by any agency.
  4. In 2004, seriously suspicious anomalies turned up. Some precincts reported more votes cast than there were registered voters. In some highly Republican counties in southern Ohio, a Democratic candidate for Chief Justice who had not advertised in the area received more votes than the Democratic presidential ticket. Even more suspiciously, in these same counties, there were many more votes against a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage than there were for the Democratic ticket. Nowhere else in the state did these bizarre patterns occur. The same county that lied about a “terrorist threat” is located in this region.
  5. The U.S. Senate, when presented with all the information, saw it as suspicious enough to warrant an objection to the Ohio slate of presidential electors and a hearing into the voter suppression aspects of the story.

It’s been a while since I looked at this information, and there is probably more that I’ve forgotten. A Congressman, John Conyers, compiled everything into a concise book that hit the shelves of mainstream bookstores. However, the point is that the two situations—2004 and 2008—are not comparable. In 2004, the only allegation raised was that voter suppression and possible ballot stuffing or vote-switching may have illegitimately flipped the vote of one very closely contested state. No credible allegations were made about the national popular vote or multiple states, and those making the allegations about the state of Ohio came bearing evidence. On the flip side, the Tea Party embraces the idea (because so many of its members hold it) that the organization ACORN “stole the election” without, apparently, recognizing what it would actually imply if that were true. For ACORN to have stolen the election, they somehow had to have created 10 million fake voter names across the country that made it past the Secretaries of State or Departments of Elections, and they sent out 10 million people to vote fraudulently under those names on Election Day. Alternatively, they had the polls stacked with people who stuffed 10 million fake votes into ballot boxes.

This is not a rational idea. This is a conspiracy theory of the first order. However, it seems that in dictatorships such as Afghanistan and Iran, massive ballot-box stuffing does occur, as well as outright lying by the vote-tallying sources about who won. If one believes that the United States of America is a dictatorship, then of course such a notion is plausible. The idea of ACORN as the tyrannical government’s private ballot-box stuffer is so prevalent in Tea Party circles that Doug Hoffman, the candidate in the New York special election last year supported by Tea Partiers, blamed it for his loss, despite that the district he ran in is extremely rural and ACORN is pretty much exclusively an urban group. It didn’t even have an office close by.

Another common behavior of dictatorships, real and fictional, is to turn children against their parents and convince them that their family members are enemies of the state. George Orwell noted this and made it an important detail of his masterpiece 1984. Naturally, the Tea Party movement has taken this to a ridiculous extreme in their dictatorship conspiracy theory. Glenn Beck recently said on his program that Obama was “turning kids against their parents to get elected.” This is not just a dog-whistle to the conspiracy-minded who think we are living under a dictatorship. In a shout-out to the new 2010 vintage Tea Party, which is less Libertarian and more Religious Right, Beck goes on to say that this is against the Mosaic commandment to honor one’s parents. Seriously? These people worry about a dictatorship and yet think that young adults have no inherent right to vote differently from their parents or get their parents interested in casting a vote at all? Let alone the idea that voting a certain way is at all comparable to turning in family members for crimes against the state. In a deep, massive irony, during the Bush era, there was an official statement from the Department of Homeland Security that we should all keep an eye on our neighbors for signs of terrorist sympathies or suspicious behavior.

A year ago, the Tea Party movement was planning protests on Tax Day. These protests were purportedly about the bank bailouts and the failed “cramdown” mortgage restructuring attempt. I had issues with the concept of protesting the government’s attempts to help people avoid homelessness, but at least there was a coherent message to the Tea Party. The movement could say that it was about small government and keeping the government out of any form of bailout, and it would have some validity. It was a Libertarian populist movement, and you could take that or leave it. However, something happened to the group over the course of the year. They embraced the Religious Right, for one, and the New World Order conspiracy theory is a dusty old skeleton in this group’s closet that many do not want to acknowledge. Even those who do not accept the NWO theory often believe that there is a nebulous “secularist” conspiracy to ban the Bible (and presumably also to repeal the First Amendment, which is what it would take). It makes some sense that these people would bring their version of reality into the ranks and allow it to distort Tea Party views. But they also embraced groups that had heretofore been deemed fringe: the birthers and the militia movement, for starters. By taking these people into their ranks who did not all necessarily share the Libertarian economic viewpoint, or have it as their chief issue, the Tea Party had to find something to unify its adherents. The “secret dictatorship” conspiracy theory seems to have been what was used for this. It has come at a price, though. In times of economic distress, there is often great appeal in a populist movement, but the appeal becomes limited when that movement loses its touch with reality.

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January 21, 2010

The Ministry of Truth Is Located in Texas

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 3:38 pm

A little more than a decade ago, my family and I were heavily involved in the local public school system in one county in Mississippi. The school district was monumentally corrupt in many ways, from the fact that one could place a majority of the teachers in one school on the same three family trees, to the blatant insertion of political agendas into class lectures, to the county superintendent of education’s inclination toward vicious revenge and abuse of power. We fought many well-intentioned but extremely bad ideas that probably actually originated in the bowels of a state-level office. Of course, every now and then something would crop up to which we could not even give the benefit of a doubt. One example that immediately springs to mind is that the district handbook allowed administrators to let certain students take foreign language in the eighth grade “at their discretion,” but because my family and I had already tied up with the school district, my school principal vindictively abused this “discretion” and refused to let me, the top student in my grade and recently coming out of Washington, DC as a National Spelling Bee finalist, into the class.

We were active in the process. We took our grievances first to the administrators, then to the school board. We helped manage a campaign to unseat the superintendent of education, which failed. We wrote letters to the local newspaper, including one that I wrote as a freshman about ridiculous “security” policies instituted in the wake of the Columbine school shooting. By all measures, we did the activism part right.

However, we were up against a strongly apathetic populace and a small group of people who were very committed to their agenda, and that agenda was not just ill-conceived educational policy. Over the course of my high school education, I was informed in a history class that, in the teacher’s opinion, “Nixon was innocent in Watergate and the Democrats just set it all up because that’s the kind of thing they would do.” This was after the Nixon tapes had begun to trickle out. In a social studies class, I was told that a single president could undermine years of legal precedent by changing the Supreme Court makeup “like the current president (Clinton) has done.” Never mind that Roe v. Wade, the case that was almost certainly on this teacher’s mind, had been settled law for 25 years. I was “taught” evolution in one of my science classes by being told to outline the chapter as a single night’s homework assignment. I don’t recall learning anything in school about the Big Bang, though in private reading I had long moved on to articles about the theorized heat death of the universe.

Our efforts to fix that particular school district ended in complete, total failure, and my three sisters and I all withdrew from school long before graduation. (Read more…)

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January 16, 2010

Turning It Off and Walking Away

Filed under: Other, Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 5:41 pm

In the media, the ratio of bad news to good is, needless to say, very high. This should come as no surprise to anyone when you consider both the business model of the news industry and the simple facts of life on Earth. The news media—especially the TV media—depend on people to stay hooked on their channel. TV, a real-time medium, is visceral and emotional; what is broadcast over the tube needs to have an emotional hook in order to keep you there. Bad news definitely qualifies because it invokes the fear instinct. This may well be the most primal instinct we have. Hundreds of thousands of years ago, our ancestors, lacking physical reflexes to match those of animals that would prey on them as well as effective weaponry, relied on this instinct to protect themselves from predators. That twitch of horror you feel upon hearing about a child who was kidnapped and murdered? That’s an instinctive reaction left over from when we feared being the meal of a carnivorous animal. Knowing what the reaction is may tend to help alleviate the visceral horror that we feel upon hearing such things; at least it does for some of us.

But every once in a while, a news story will appear that is so awful that I don’t even want to know about it. The earthquake in Haiti is a perfect example. And before you immediately think, “This person is a sociopath just like Rush Limbaugh,” let me explain. I have been avoiding this story. The imagery that I have seen (it’s almost impossible to completely avoid the news in the information age) reminds me all too well of the images of human misery that came out of New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast after Hurricane Katrina. However, for all that this was part of my reason for not staying up-to-date with this one, that is not the primary reason I have been avoiding the story.

For all my life, I have been a “can-do” type of person. I am a Type A personality, an INTP (sometimes INTJ) on the Myers-Briggs, and an Enneagram personality type of “Achiever.” My ambition has taken different directions, and unfortunately it has sometimes had to struggle against stress or illness, but it has always had an object. It’s very difficult for a person like me to say, “I can do nothing about this.” Middle-class life in a first world country, high intelligence (it’s not boasting if it’s the truth), decent health, and they ultimately mean nothing for some situations. But that is the conclusion I have been forced to draw about the situation in Haiti. I had to draw the same conclusion about the devastating cyclone in Burma and the earthquake in China a few years ago. I had to turn the TV off and walk away because there was nothing I could do, and because staring at such images with no intention of doing anything about it seemed to be little more than disaster voyeurism. I don’t have a high opinion of deliberately stoking that primal fear instinct for the adrenaline thrill.

Many people are going to Haiti for cleanup efforts. The U.S. military is sending troops into the Caribbean to assist with relief, and from what I have heard, those soldiers are pretty much universally proud and happy to be part of the effort. They should be; what they are doing is making a difference. They do have the power to help, as do the churches and charitable groups that are sending people. Unfortunately, though, most people just can’t go. I would not suppose this to be the case for myself, but some people undoubtedly have very precarious employment situations, and it would quite literally be a choice of keeping their job or helping an earthquake victim in another country. For my part, I would just have to take unpaid leave, lacking that much vacation time, but money is still a strong consideration in a harsh economy. We live in a society that places an extremely high value on work. A consequence of this is that most people are tied to work and cannot do other things if it is a choice between work and these other activities.

I suppose I could donate some paltry amount of money to the relief efforts. The Red Cross has raised millions, certainly, and that undoubtedly helps. But the simple fact is that even if I emptied out my savings account and donated 100% of it to this, that is pocket change compared to what needs to be done. Again, I’ve witnessed this firsthand as a resident of a state struck by Hurricane Katrina. Even in the year that will be the fifth anniversary of the strike, there is still work that needs to be done and work that needs to be done but won’t. There was that much damage.

This is no doubt going to come across as a heartless, soulless thing to say, but unless an individual is independently wealthy and donates a very large sum of money to charitable relief, no individual donation is going to amount to much, and moreover, having an impact was not even the primary purpose of the donation. Unless we have a personal stake in a cause (such as a widow giving to the American Cancer Society after the early death of her husband from cancer), the act of giving is something we do to make ourselves feel better. It’s a placebo effect. It gives us the feeling that we do have power to change the situation. Certainly if enough individuals make donations, that amounts to something, and I would not dare try to dissuade anyone from making a charitable contribution if that is what they want to do. But for me, I would look at the amount of money I would be able to give, and it would just reinforce my sense of powerlessness.

It’s not at all about wanting acclaim or recognition for anything. I am simply unable to feel that my efforts even matter for the cause at hand if they only have value after being combined with 100,000 other people’s efforts. 10 dollars more or less—what’s the difference when we are talking about tens of millions? It’s why I left political activism. It did not empower me; it made me feel like a single molecule in one grain of sand on the beach. “Hardcore” activist types (a term I’ve made up to describe those activists who are extremely eager to judge those not like themselves) condemn those with personalities like this, believing that we only are in anything for ourselves. It’s not true; we are simply people who want to see concrete evidence that we have made a difference. I’m not a hypocrite about it either. I have complained over the years about various aspects of the Hurricane Katrina recovery effort, but they were always directed at those who had the ability to act but chose not to, such as FEMA, members of Congress, the media, and members of the Bush administration. I do not harbor one iota of resentment toward any “regular person” who did not do anything for Katrina victims.

In comparison with what happened in my (relative) backyard four and a half years ago, the current governmental American efforts seem to be doing extremely well. It really should tell us something that it is easier for us to do disaster relief in other countries than in our own, but I blame the Homeland Security bureaucratic rules (and Bush-era incompetence) for that. I’m glad that there are people in existence who do have the ability and means to do something about this, and I’m glad that this time, there are people in place who will act and act effectively. However, for myself, I have to turn off the TV.

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November 24, 2009

+6°C

Filed under: Science, Weather — PolitiCalypso @ 12:11 am

Forget the brouhaha about the ideologically motivated hackers who combed through megabytes of e-mails in order to find some indicating that, horrors, scientists are humans too and some of them will jazz up their data to make a point. It means nothing in terms of the credibility of anthropogenic climate change. All that the climate deniers have proven is that their “position” is utterly bankrupt. In the language of the Internet, the hacking stunt was a fail. Hoping to find proof of a grand conspiracy to falsify data in favor of global climate change, their hackers simply uncovered a few e-mails in which a few scientists spoke about manipulating the presentation of the data that they had found. No secret coverups, no collective lying about what is contained in the data, no forged results, just a mere matter of data presentation. The data themselves are what’s really the issue. Considering how lackadaisical that the politicians of the world have been on this subject, and considering what their stalling seems to have done, I can’t say I’m against jazzing up the data to scare people.

A scientific study group led by British scientists has run the climate models again, and the group has found that we are on target for a global rise in temperature of 6°C by the year 2100. This is the worst-case scenario of the 2007 United Nations report on climate change, which even then was widely seen as being far too conservative. The odds are very strong that I wouldn’t live to see it, since I’d be 117 if I did, but the children and definitely grandchildren of my generation would see it.

This is not quite a repeat of the carbon- and methane-caused temperature spike that caused the massive Permian extinction and resulted in the loss of 95% of all species on Earth. It’s not quite the catastrophic mass extinction scenario of the Pixar movie WALL-E. (Yes, the real environmental damage portrayed in that film was caused by global warming, not just garbage.) But it’s close, and it isn’t an isolated result. For several years now, scientific studies of climate have been finding that the observed conditions are on the upper end of the range of predicted results for that period of time, or even exceed all estimates outright. Those people who have paid attention to global warming news probably saw this British result coming.

Life on Earth at +6°C would not be a pleasant affair, even if the description of it in The Independent is a bit sensationalized. The Gulf Stream Current of the Atlantic would have shut down, plunging Europe into coldness (and probably also much of the Atlantic coast) and cutting off the outward flow of hot water from the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Without a source of outflow for this tropical heat, hurricanes like Katrina could be brewed up in the Gulf every month in every hurricane season, theoretically. Tropical diseases and invasive species would have an easier time of spreading past their appropriate ranges. The Arctic ice would long ago have melted—indeed, the summer ice is very close to disappearing now, and mainstream scientific consensus is that it is too late to prevent this particular loss—and the resulting changes in air masses would have a profound impact on Northern Hemisphere climates. At 6°C, the Antarctic Ice Shelf likely would have melted as well, along with Greenland, resulting in the submerging of areas like the Florida peninsula and the marshes of Louisiana.

But even so, what the West will face in this brave new nightmare world is mild in comparison with what is coming Africa and Asia’s way. Africa, already suffering from critical food and disease problems, would see both exacerbated. The melting of glaciers and the sea-level-driven flooding would be climatic bombs dropped on east Asia. Imagine a scenario in which the ice of the Himalaya mountains—a source of fresh water for India, China, and Pakistan—melted away. Then add to that the seawater flooding of the Ganges, Yangtze, and other river basins in Asia that have port cities housing millions of people. Those people have to go somewhere, but resources would already be strained because of the decrease in usable fresh water. China, India, and Pakistan are all nuclear powers. (It suddenly makes “Global Zero,” a full nuclear disarmament movement, sound not at all hippie-idealistic, but critical.) Even the Bush-era Pentagon produced a report about the geopolitical effects of catastrophic global climate change, and its conclusions were chilling. It predicted a global resource war.

What scientist in his or her right mind would want to fabricate data to support such a horrific situation? The only people who enjoy dreaming of things like this are people like the scriptwriters for 2012. People who actually do deal in fantasy. Of course the stupid hackers did not find anything real. It is indicative of the level of media discourse in America that, to the extent that either news story is being discussed at all, their failed stunt garnered more attention than the scientific study of the Global Carbon Project. But the Global Carbon Project’s results are far more important.

I’ve said it before and I will reiterate it in the face of this ugly report. I do not believe that energy efficiency and conservation will be enough to forestall this. I am absolutely in favor of moving in that direction, if for no other reason than because it is cheaper in the long run and it is not advisable to power a world economy on fuels that will someday run out. However, I am utterly convinced that we will need to develop geoengineering techniques that can remove the greenhouse gases that we have already put into the atmosphere. Technology created this problem, yes, but it is a fallacy to extrapolate from this that technology must be avoided in finding a solution. In fact, I think that the judicious use of technology to clean up the atmosphere is the real solution.

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October 7, 2009

An Opt-Out Public Option Lets Red States SENTENCE THEIR PEOPLE TO DEATH by Popular Vote

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 11:11 pm

As we approach the endgame of the health care reform debate in Congress, an idea has been floated recently that might be the worst one I have yet encountered.  Yes, in my book it tops out mandates without a public option, taxing health care policies, triggers, and co-operative plans.  The idea is to have a strong national public option but to allow state governments individually to opt out of allowing their residents to make use of it.  This idea has picked up steam in the “progressive netroots community” (bloggers), with a surge in support on flagship blog Daily Kos, among others.

It is a truly horrible idea, though, and it just goes to show that bad ideas do not only come from Blue Dog Democrats or Tea Party Republicans.  Self-described “progressives” can have them too.

“Progressive” Activists Betray the Legacy of the Civil War:  A United U. S. A.

This is far from the first time that “progressives” have advocated Balkanization of the United States and the breakdown of the federal government in favor of a loose alliance such as that proposed by the Articles of Confederation.  In the lead-up to the American Civil War, many Northern progressives said “Let the South go” rather than fighting militarily to bring seceded states back into the U.S.  These 1860s-era progressives did not really care about the human rights issue of slavery.  Many of them believed that slavery would collapse under its own weight and the South might voluntarily choose to return.  Obviously, history did not take this path, so we do not know how it would have turned out if President Lincoln had followed this advice and war had not broken out.  However, we do know one thing:  African Americans would have remained enslaved for far longer than they were.  Not just living under the iron heel of Jim Crow laws, but actually enslaved.  We also know that, though some aspects of Reconstruction were extremely broken, when that process ended by the “corrupt bargain” of the 1876 election, Jim Crow laws were immediately forced into effect.  That’s what happened when they “let the South go.”  Human and civil rights in the South were eroded.

The legacy of the Civil War was not just the abolition of slavery and the enshrining in the Constitution of voting rights to people (men, at the time) of any race.  Another part of the legacy was the principle that there are certain things individual states cannot do.  The War settled the question of secession and nullification.  If states are part of the U.S., they abide by the laws of the U.S. and cannot deny their residents the protections of the Constitution, the United States Code, and federal programs.

Of course, if a health care reform bill is signed and it allows states to opt out of a robust national public option, this would blow a hole right through that ideal.  Legally, of course; there is nothing in the Constitution that says Washington cannot enact laws with an opt-out clause for states.  But the very existence of this hypothetical opt-out would go against one of the legacies of the Civil War, just as surely as it would go against the legacy of abolition if the U.S. somehow overturned the Thirteenth Amendment through legal means.  For progressives to be advocating this idea is a monumental betrayal.

Death by Popular Vote

It’s not just a betrayal of E Pluribus Unum, either.  This idea is a betrayal of every person in a Republican-dominated state who is in favor of a public option.  It is saying to us that we don’t count.  Here is a direct quote from a popular Daily Kos diary in support of this idea:

(…) I really love the idea of an opt-out public option.

Not because it’s the best idea by any means. A robust single-payer plan would be the best idea. Not because tens of thousands of real Americans won’t die and go bankrupt in states with morally bankrupt legislators. They will.

Our lives are meaningless, then, to the “progressive netroots community” except as political pawns.  The message absolutely could not be clearer.

I know what the residents of my state would probably vote for.  I certainly know what my governor and Legislature would do.  And while I would indeed apportion blame to them if Mississippi denied its residents access to a national public option, I would apportion a great deal more to the ivory tower blue coast “progressives,” and any members of Congress who voted for such a thing, for making it possible and legal for them to do it.

People in the South and other Red areas will die because of this, if it passes, whereas they would not die in Blue states.  This means that a state’s populace would be allowed to sentence people to death, permanent indigence, or bankruptcy by a popular fiat.  Have we sunk so far?  There was massive outrage—MASSIVE, I say—about the idea behind California’s Proposition 8 and the fact that 50% + 1 could deny court-established civil rights to people.  Where did the outrage go?  Or was it only ever present because LGBT people are generally a liberal-oriented group and California was a blue state?

I am a former Democratic Senate staffer, actually, but I would NOT forget that it was the progressive community and Democrats in Congress who allowed townhallers, teabaggers, and insura-cons in my state to sentence people like me to death or bankruptcy.  Want my vote in the future?  Want the votes of any left-of-center Southerners in the future?  Too bad, suckers.  If this idea ends up passing, we will remember exactly who it was that sold us down the river.  We would expect no less from our troglodyte state governments, whom we do not vote for anyway, but we depend on Washington to keep their harmful ideologies somewhat in check.  This idea won’t turn the South blue.  All it will do is royally tick off Southern Democrats and liberal-inclined people.  (Yes, I am a civil libertarian oriented liberal, not that cowardly weasel-word “progressive.”)  It will send the message loud and clear that our lives, health, and finances do not matter because of where we live, that we are not worth fighting for, that we have no inherent value, but are only useful as a body count to make a political point.

I’ve suspected this for some time about the “progressive” community’s real opinion of Hurricane Katrina’s victims, and this idea does not do one thing to dispel this suspicion.  It only reinforces it, in fact.  Apparently, if you live outside of a Blue area, your only value to this part of the “netroots community” is as a part of a body count that they can use to advance a political agenda.  Even if it’s an agenda that you otherwise would agree with, nobody wants their entire worth to be dependent upon their being dead.

In truth, this whole scheme gives the impression of being revenge politics. If you are at all familiar with the left-wing blogosphere, you’ll know that there is a huge amount of resentment over the fact that the South gets more money from the federal government than it pays in. The people who hold this resentment ignore that the entire purpose of social programs and such is to assist the poor, and the South is the poorest region in the country. To them, no one in the South deserves anything because a majority of Southern voters would vote against their having it. They are no different from anti-tax Republicans in that they only want to see “their” tax money go to projects and places that they personally like, and they have a massive grudge against the Southeast. This opt-out idea looks very much to me like they simply love the idea of “getting back at the South” for the tax money that it “stole” from them.

Passing a law with this in it would also send the message that health care is not a fundamental human or civil right in the United States.  If it were either, it would be the responsibility of the federal government to require every state to offer the same health care exchange across the borders.  With the exception of the death penalty, the federal government does not defer to states in the arena of human or civil rights (and it is truly a major problem with the DP that the same crime can get a different sentence not based on the judge and jury, but based on where it was committed).  By letting states opt out, this continues to send the message that health care is a privilege rather than a right.  This is not the message that we want to send!  That is the opposition’s message.

It will not turn the teabag crew in favor of the Democratic Party.  Their people are dying at the hands of insurance gangsters, too; it doesn’t seem to penetrate their skulls.  If anything, all it will do is cement their ideology.  “We don’t have socialism in this state!”

Denying—or letting governors and legislatures deny—people the right to use a social program is not going to turn anyone in favor of that program.  The only thing that will is to deploy it and let people see through experience, either their own or that of people they know, that it is not such a bad thing.  Every parent knows that sometimes they must force a stubborn child to do something, even if the child stamps his foot and DOESN’T WANT TO, because it is good for the child and the child will be grateful for it in the end.

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September 8, 2009

Making It $0.04, Then: Health Care Part II

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 5:44 pm

My previous blog about health care reform and Generation Y did not touch on one specific detail about the prospect of a mandates-only insurance law like the state of Massachusetts has. This follow-up will address that 800-pound gorilla and a bit more.

Let’s take the hypothetical that Congress passes, and the President signs, a bill that requires American adults to purchase a private insurance policy but does not provide a public plan. Let us suppose that noncompliance is punished with a fine that is automatically taken out of one’s taxes, as is done in MA. In that state, you must provide proof of insurance for the entire tax year or, barring extreme poverty, you will get fined for it.

Generations Y and Millennial, which contain the largest number of uninsured, will get hit the hardest by such a law. The bill that proposes this, the “Baucus bill,” would cap the out-of-pocket cost of premiums at 13% of a person’s yearly income. A year’s full-time work at the minimum wage (probably the most common wage for this age group) comes to $14,790 before taxes; you can skim off about 20 percent of that in various taxes, of which perhaps half will be recovered by the following year. (The rest is Social Security and Medicare. Yes, Virginia, there is socialized medicine in America already, but only if you’re older than 65.) I am not sure whether the 13% figure applies to gross income or income after taxes. If it is gross income, that’s $1922.70 a year for insurance premiums, or $160 a month. For net income, it is $1538.16 a year, or $128.18 a month.

This may not sound so bad until you realize that this leaves a single person making minimum wage with either $9909 a year or $10294 a year, and this must cover housing, food, transportation (including auto insurance in most cases), utilities, and perhaps other necessities such as child care. It also must cover all medical bills that this “insurance” is not covering because of deductibles and co-pays.

The only plans that run for less than $128 a month are plans that are not intended to be long-term. They are meant for people who are between jobs and need creditable coverage to avoid getting blasted with a pre-existing conditions clause when they get a job again. They often have expiration dates of a year after issuance. The kind of a plan a minimum-wage worker would afford gets them a ridiculously high deductible (up to $5000) and a horrible co-pay. This sort of policy is worthless. It’s extortion, quite frankly—forcing money out of a person to avoid a punishment, but not offering anything tangible to show for it. People with these policies pay twice; they pay for their premiums and then they pay for the cost of medical care, because the insurance doesn’t cover a bit of it unless they get catastrophically ill.

I defy anyone, anyone in the world other than Ebenezer Scrooge, to suggest that this is a reasonable thing to do to someone making minimum wage. In many cities, it is tantamount to condemning a person to living in a shelter. It encourages people to make very poor decisions in order to have enough household cash to stay out of cardboard boxes: Find a roommate, any roommate, cohabit and therefore risk an unplanned pregnancy, get married when they have no business doing so, etc. Some people will find ways of committing suicide (and decrease the surplus population?) rather than continue with what they believe is a never-ending downward spiral. Forcing vulnerable people into making bad decisions is not good policy.

However, even the most diehard Scrooges of the world surely will not have a word to say about the other horrible aspect of this hypothetical mandates-only insurance law. I am talking about deficit explosions. This is the 800-pound gorilla, the aspect of bad reform bills that I did not touch on in the previous blog. Deficits are popular to talk about these days, and it says something about the insurance industry’s stranglehold on our political system that deficits suddenly don’t get discussed when bills come up that could reap them a mountain of profit.

That 13 percent in the Baucus bill is not a cap on the market cost of a policy. It is a cap on the buyer’s out-of-pocket costs toward buying that policy. You cannot force people to pay money that they don’t have; debtor’s prisons are against the law and I think there might well be blood in the streets if we actually started sending people to jail for nonpayment of “fines” for not being insured. The government, you see, helps out. It makes up the difference by offering subsidies to poor people. There is no proposal to cap the absolute cost of policies, and there is no proposal to cap executive payrolls. Basically, there’s no means to control runaway health insurance costs. This bill, a national version of the failed Massachusetts system, would simply shift the bulk of the expense to the government.

You think the deficit is bad now? Wait till the government has locked itself into paying whatever insurance companies demand. This is what has happened in Massachusetts. I used to live there; the system that they have there has only exploded premium costs, with the state government paying the price for it. Much of the money is paying for garbage—the lousy junk (or more accurately, bunk) insurance policies that are all that’s affordable to private individuals without group coverage. The purpose of business is to make money. That’s neither evil nor good in itself, but it should be taken into account. Government policy telling a particular industry “Charge what you like and we’ll foot the bill” is blatantly stupid.

Sure enough, the most expensive Congressional bills, as scored by the Congressional Budget Office, are those that attempt such a thing. The least expensive are those that have a sturdy cost control mechanism, namely a government-administered insurance option.

The main benefit of a public plan would be that NO money going to it would be funneled into the 8-figure salaries and bonuses that have actually driven the cost of health insurance premiums sky-high. It could pay for people’s health care rather than the yacht of some corporate bureaucrat. It is a complete myth that malpractice lawsuits, overuse of medical services, and/or a reckless iPhone-loving generation voluntarily going uninsured are what have caused costs to go up. All of these things undoubtedly happen on case-by-case bases, but the real culprit, pure and simple, is executive greed, just as it was for Wall Street.

A private-only reform plan could work, theoretically. Other countries have done it. However, the countries that have pulled it off have regulated their private sectors to the hilt. There are strong cost control mechanisms and in many cases, take-home pay is capped. I don’t think such a system would be the best fit for the United States of America. We are about choices in the marketplace. A government plan is just another choice. If it provides a better product than the private sector, well, that’s the marketplace at work. They would either improve themselves or take the consequences.

I do believe in economic freedom, provided that basic safety of labor, consumers, and the environment has been accounted for. Earlier in the year when people were screaming for Congress to cap executive pay, I was against the idea; I favored a punitive tax on firms that had abused the bailout money. I am against the government placing a cap on the pay of any private sector individual, including those most hated. All legitimate businesses get government assistance, whether in the form of tax benefits or in the much loathed bailouts. In many situations, government contracts jobs out to private businesses, paying them with taxpayer money. Saying “X business should have its salaries capped because it gets money from the government” is a slippery slope, and what the people calling for it actually wanted was a cap on “bad” businesses encoded into U.S. law. This is a bad idea. I am all for highly progressive taxes on the wealthy, but I am unequivocally against dictating a maximum limit for a person’s gross income.

So, a mandates-only bill will drive people who are barely treading water further into financial disintegration, most of whom are the young generation and are already saddled with mountains of debt and a truly atrocious economic situation. It will force them to create more credit card debt as they pile basic living expenses onto their cards out of sheer necessity. (Do you hear the voice of personal experience in this?) It will drive governments into a sea of red ink as they foot the bill for the remainder of whatever outrageously priced bunk insurance policy that the private sector, when guaranteed a captive customer base, will force on people. This is not theoretical, though the theoretical financial estimates of such a proposal back it up too. This has actually happened in the state, Massachusetts, where it has been tried.

There’s a call these days that “some reform is better than none at all.” I most vociferously disagree. There are ways of making the status quo worse, and the Congressional bill out there that does not have a public option definitely does that. It may be bad for the Democratic Party to fail to pass a bill, but the long-term fiscal health of the United States of America takes precedent over the health of a political party.

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September 6, 2009

My $0.02 on Health Care: Beware the Sleeping Giant

Filed under: Politics — PolitiCalypso @ 12:55 am

I’ve avoided saying anything on this blog about the health care debate, not because I don’t have an opinion, but because it seemed to vary on a daily basis about which way the debate was going, and anything I said would be obsolete very quickly unless I updated the blog each day as well (which I don’t have the requisite commitment to blogging to do).  This is likely to be my sole comment on it, and it is to serve as a warning to certain people in politics.

If you pass a health care reform bill that mandates all adult Americans to purchase insurance policies without providing a Medicare-like public option, beware.  Beware the sleeping giant.

I speak of Generation Y, the group of people born in the 1980s.  This is my generation.  It is the generation that, arguably, delivered Barack Obama the White House.  It is also the generation with the most people who are “voluntarily uninsured.”  (The “young invincibles,” as the sneering corporate media dubs us, a phrase that is extremely offensive to those of us in our 20s who do have serious pre-existing conditions, such as yours truly, and already have accepted that our bodies are on a time limit because we get proof of it at every doctor’s visit.)

Yes, of the voluntarily uninsured, a majority of them are young people who (for whatever reason) don’t think they need health insurance yet.  This is true.  This means that my generation has become a convenient scapegoat for those forces who think that the problem is that things cost too much for the insurance industry.  We (I say “we” to refer to Generation Y as a whole, since I am obviously not part of the “we” who can voluntarily forgo health insurance) are blamed for the rise in premiums, since we aren’t there to share the costs with everyone else.  The fact that the health insurance industry has raked in record profits lately seems to have escaped the minds of these people, but there you have it.  A mandate from the government to buy insurance would hit my generation the hardest.

And let me tell you, the Democratic Party will not like the result.  In all the calculations by the White House and the Blue Dog members (not least of which appear to be calculations about how much money they will lose from the industry in donations if they support real reform), the effect of waking up the sleeping giant of Generation Y and its successor, the Millennials, seems to have been lost.

My generation put these Democrats and this President into power.  I have to admit that I was never on board with hope and change; I was always skeptical and cynical about that rhetoric.  But many of my generation actually did believe it.  More importantly, they believed in it. They saw candidate Obama as a person who was in touch with them and could actually represent them. I can say with near certainty that forcing this generation to send their money to the bloodsucking private insurance industry, in exchange for junk policies (which is all that will be offered at the rates that Generation Y can actually afford—keep reading), will drive these new voters into cynical apathy or possibly even into the arms of the Republican Party.

The AFL-CIO recently completed a report on the economic state of young workers.  Their findings were that my generation (and to an extent, Generation X) can barely afford their bills, if at all; that a third of us still live with parents because of necessity; that if we lost our sources of income, a huge majority of us would have no more than a month’s worth of living expenses saved up; and that we have the worst health benefits, sick/vacation packages, and retirement benefits of any age group.

THIS is the generation that the Democrats in Congress and apparently, the President, would force to enrich the health insurance industry.  Generation Y cannot afford it. However much CNN and its ilk may want to pretend that my age cohort has a large number of uninsured because we would rather pay out for iPods, the truth is that we don’t have it because a great many of us have crappy jobs (if any) with crappy wages and worse, no benefits.  I am exceedingly grateful to be in the portion of my generation that does have at least mediocre health insurance that covers my pre-existing conditions and a deductible that wouldn’t require me to tap into the cash line of my credit card to pay.

If we get a mandates-only health insurance bill out of Washington, where is the money going to come from to pay for the premiums, I ask?  Government subsidies?  Try getting government subsidies as a young person unless you are a single parent or living in a box.  I’ve tried.  The proposed subsidy program in one of the many health care bills, the one that does not have a public option, is about at this level.

Will it be like in Massachusetts, where you must provide proof of insurance to the state tax commission come tax day, and if you cannot provide it for all 12 months, you get a fine automatically taken out of your rebate?  That’ll go over well.  What if such a law would mean that a tax rebate became a tax liability, a liability that one could not pay?  Are we going to put people in jail for failure to send money to a private industry?  The Republican town hall disruptors scream about “fascism,” but if that’s not actual fascism, I don’t know what is.  If this is what we end up getting, you can toss me a tea bag and count me as one of them.  I strongly suspect I will not be the only liberal-turned-”teabagger” if this is what passes.

Incidentally, the cost of insurance premiums in Massachusetts has shot through the roof since “Romneycare” was enacted.  So much for mandates alone being an effective way to lower costs.

If the Democrats pass Romneycare-turned-national, they will lose Generation Y and the Millennials.

Obama’s going to make a statement on Wednesday about his vision for health care reform.  About time.  I hope he’s taken to heart the lesson that there are few real leaders in Washington, DC, and that Congress is used to 8 years of being threatened and intimidated by a consummate bully of a President to the extent that they have apparently forgotten how to lead.

A mandates-only bill is what I am against.  What I am for is a little harder to articulate.

I am in favor of a public health care option that is administered like Medicare—something that every American would be eligible for but that was not mandated and did not have automatic enrollment.

Call be a libertarian, but I am not in favor of “universal coverage” in the sense that 100% of the population would have “insurance” (whether public or private).  I think that if you are an adult, you have comprehensive and affordable options available to you, and you don’t want coverage, that should be your right—as should paying your own medical bills.  I am in favor of making good insurance affordable to everyone who wants it, and to all children regardless of what their parents want.

I am against caps on malpractice settlements.  What’s your eyesight worth to you?  What about your limbs?  What about the life of a loved one?  You see the problem with this.

I am in favor of passing a law allowing people to sue their health insurance providers.

I am in favor of having a strong federal committee to regulate the private insurance industry, but I am concerned about it becoming corrupted whenever a President or a Congress came in that didn’t want the insurance industry regulated.  Any means of making this committee robust rather than subject to the partisan whims of the time, I would be in favor of.

I am in favor of decoupling health insurance from employment.  If employers want to offer a group policy, that’s fine, but I do not support automatic enrollment of employees.

And with the exception of my tort reform opinion, I don’t see what’s so controversial about any of this.  But then, I’m not taking in thousands of dollars in campaign contributions.

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July 2, 2009

Global Warming Now Messing with El Nino?

Filed under: Science, Weather — PolitiCalypso @ 1:37 pm

Possibly.

Scientists have recently discovered a positive relationship between an alternative type of El Nino, called El Nino Modoki, and Atlantic hurricane activity. The connection had largely slipped under the radar because the scientists in Japan and Korea who knew the most about Modoki did not connect it with Atlantic hurricanes. (It would just figure. This has happened before with respect to ENSO and hurricanes; the ENSO specialists didn’t work with the hurricane specialists, and so that connection wasn’t known for years either.) This type of El Nino involves warming in the central and/or western Pacific rather than the Pacific coast of South America, and it is associated with increased Atlantic hurricane activity and increased landfalls—unlike the traditional El Nino, which tends to suppress activity in this basin.

2004 (of Ivan infamy) was an El Nino Modoki year. 2006 was a traditional El Nino year. 2009… may be a split:

“We spent all last week trying to figure that out,” [Peter] Webster [meteorologist of Georgia Tech] said. ‘It looks like it might be a hybrid,” with warming starting in the east and them moving west, possibly meaning more hurricanes late in the season.

Webster speculates that the Modoki phenomenon may be caused by global warming. Then again, it may not be. I’m rather interested, in fact, in the year 1969, which was an El Nino year for most months but still had a highly active hurricane season, including record Hurricane Camille. General consensus is that we are just now seeing the effects of climate change in our weather, so 1969 may (or may not) be out of the window of opportunity for global warming to have had an effect on El Nino.

As far as that “increased late-season hurricane activity” is concerned, though… that’s about what I figured. I’ve been seeing parallels between the oceanic setup of this year and 2004, and that rather reinforces my belief.

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